Market update

LSE
====================
Market is on the verge of turning red again and it looks more likely to happen on Monday as stock markets across the world ended the week in red. They have given up all the gains of last two weeks. So outlook is not good.

EP Candidates
EXR, FMJ, GETM, MRP, PCI, RET, RKH, SCO, TNZ.

DT Candidates
=========
BLVN, HGM - Not very encouraging volume.

Market update

Market monitor for LSE is in green.

LSE
=============
EP Candidates:
CFU - earnings update
CHW - no news but EPS growth looks good.
COP - no news. Oil company helped by rising oil prices.
DES - insider trading, oil prices. This share has been on the up recently so probably too late to enter now. wait for some correction.
OFF - dividend raised.
RKH - oil price effect
STP - penny share. Ignore

DT Candidates
========================
GETM
XPT

Focus None

Market update

Market monitor for LSE is in green zone. This signals "safe" period for trading. Over here momentum based methodologies like EP and DT tend to do better. So keep an close eye on the stock popping up in these scans. MM for BSE is still in red zone so trade with caution.

LSE
======================
EP Candidates:
ADC - new contract deal.
MAY - Very encouraging volume. Bid approach.
RIFT - penny stock
ULT - Penny stock. Had EP few days back.

DT Candidates: None


BSE
================================
EP Candidates:
500166 - good volume
500467 - good volume
504036
508989
509715
512587
520066
532694
532857


DT Candidates
500103
532234
532694
532832
532850

Market Update

Here are results of todays scan

LSE
======================
EP candidates:
DES - Had an EP on 13th. so too late now.
DETS - This looks a good buy
FDI - New findings
FEP - volume not very encoraging
RKH - same as above
SBT - good volume, insider trading
VER - poor volume

Few of above had EP in last 5 days so they were good buy then.

DT Candidates:
None

BSE
========================
EP candidate: 512587


DT candidate: 500670, 506022, 532425

Analysis later

Market Monitor

Market monitor is up to date now. I have updated the code. As you can see MM for LSE is flashing green now. We have seen few rallies in last few days. Market seems to holding on to the gains. Banking sector which has been worst performing so far seems to be gaining on earnings news and increase in dividend.

I will post results of my scans later.

Market Update

MM will be updated later as I need to tweak my code and cross check the figures.

Here are results of the scans

BSE
===================
DT: 531358, 532177, 532439
531358 : Volume looks good but couldn't find any latest news on this.

EP: 500151 - Volume is just above avg. No major news except there is board meeting next week about restructing. http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=500151.BO

LSE
====================
EP: CGNY, IBB, IVE, LNG, VML
LNG - Earnings update.
All of the above are penny stocks so nothing much exciting.

DT: None

Market Update

MM for LSE is looking postive. The ratio are turning green. If market can hold the gains, soon we will see 65 days ration in green.
LSE
DT : ITI
EP: ITI - Penny stock. Ignore
Virgin: BRM, OVG, IDD, GPC
Focus: None

MM for BSE is showing bit extreme figures. I will have to do some tweaking to volume.
BSE
EP: None
DT: None
Virgin: 531598
Focus : None

How Index is calculated?

Many people have asked me how the index is calculated and what does it mean. I came across this very good article on Rediff which explains how Sensex (Index for top 30 companies in India) is calculated.

You can view the full article at http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/feb/21bspec.htm

Raj

Market Update

LSE
DT : ITI
EP: ITI - Penny stock. Ignore
Virgin: BRM, OVG, IDD, GPC

BSE
EP: None
DT: None
Virgin: 531598

I will do a research later. This is just a quick update.

Market update - 19 Feb 2008

Market seems to be stalling. It opened higher but just closed few point higher on BSE and LSE. This is not a good sign and a correction may happen now.

Also none of the scans are showing any encouraging data. It was strange to see no breakthroughs on BSE. I will update MM later.

LSE Data
===============
EP: CMG, NES, STCM, XLD
Focus : None

DT: None

BSE Data
==================
EP:

DT: None

Market Update 18 Feb 2008

MM is still flashing caution.

LSE Data
==================
DT candidate: Non e
EP: STBR, FUM, RED, LWB, BOR, NVE and OXN
Focus:
LWB - Earnings
NVE - Bid speculation
OXN - New product trail

BSE Data
============
EP Candidate
500356 -


DT Candidate
500253
500620
531739
532144
532670

Market Update 15 Feb 2008

From today I will be covering Bombay Stock Exchange data as well. I have added the market monitor for BSE in left column. As can been seen from the MM, market is still in RED eve though it has been rallying for last 3 days. MM might need tweaking for BSE a bit as the figures are bit on extreme side.

Here are today's candidates for various scans

DT for BSE

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=600470
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=532886
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=532832
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=532678
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=532619
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=530491
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=500238
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=500112

EP for BSE
None

DT for LSE
None.

EP for LSE
BES
CAO
CMG
NVE - Focus this one.
REDT
XLD

Indian stock market

I have managed to get hold of historic data for Bombay stock exchange dating back to 1987. I will be analysing the shares on BSE as well. I am looking for some more data for current month. Once I managed to get that in Amibroker, I will be creating MM for BSE as well.

On by the way, the data is available for free on internet compared to Rs. 11,000 for each year data charged by Bombay stock exchanges. So I have already saved Rs 220,000 to start with!

Market update 14 Feb 2008

Market has been moving up for last 3 days. If it can maintain the momentum, we may see things turning soon. It is still very volatile so trade with caution. It is good for intraday traders to make some buck! Long term traders, hold your horses and stay with cash. There might be a rally round the corner. Markets in Asia are rallying for last 3 days.

Dt candidate : BES, IMTE, OPM

EP Candidates: ANR, STL
Focus ANR. This came up few days back. New company and seems be doing very well. Up almost 60% in last 3 weeks. Rising platinum cost seems to be the catalyst and power crises in south africa is fuelling the growth. Seems a good buy on some weakness.

Market Update 13 Feb 2008

Market has slipped back into red. Bank and property shares lead the market down. There was ba news from B&B, which lost more than 20% of it share value today. Other bank followed in sympathy. Also the news that intrest rate may not go down quickly impact house builders.

DT Candiate:
AGLD - good volume, up on following news "Allied Gold has taken its first step in its transition from explorer to explorer/producer with the first gold pour at its Simberi Gold Project in Papua New Guinea. "
BES - penny stock

EP Candidate
AFCR, AGLD, ALBA, CMG, COH, DES, EPY, IDD

None of these looks good other than AGLD as mentioned above. Volume is up but not vey encoraging.

Common mistakes

After speaking to many people in last few months, I have realised that most of them make common mistakes when they start trading.

Here are few of them.

1. Sell when a stock is still going up.
2. Buy when a stock is going down thinking its cheap. They don't bother to investigate why it is going down. They keep the stock even if it lost more than 10%.
3. Most of them buy blue chips thinking they are safe bets.
4. They rely heavily on charts and fundamentals like P/E, EPS.
5. They buy because someone on a business news channel or in a news paper think it is good value.
   

Here is what they should be doing.

1. Hold the stock as long as it going up. Put a tracking stop loss of 7% from peak.
2. Sell if the value has dropped by 7% from your buying point.
3. Blue chips stocks may be good for reteriment where they give you 5 to 7% return in bull market. Explore new fast growing companies. There are the stocks which can give you 100% to 1600% return. Find couple of such stocks in a year and you can retire early.
4. Build your rules to filter the list of stocks you would like to buy and then use charts to support your decision.
5. If someone is recommending on a televison or news paper, it is already too late to buy. The stock may already have priced in the news. Do your research.
   

Stock picking is a beautiful art. Once you master it, you will be happy for your lifetime. Again these thing need time and effort. There is no such thing as free lunch.

Market update - 12 Feb 2008

Market did rally a bit on the Warren buffet news. Market monitor is still showing caution. Whether this rally will sustain, we will normally know in 4 to 5 days time.

There are no good candidates in EP and DT.

Market update - 11 Feb 2008

Market is still in red territory. It is sensible to be on sideline and preserve hard earned cash.

DT Candidate
ALD

EP Candidate
BIFF
FDI
OIL

Market Update - 07 Feb 2008

Last two days action has pulled market back into red. Lot of negative news are testing the confidence of the investors. Also earnings news are not helping either.

In bear market, momemtum based startegies like DT don't give great results. So better to sit on sideline with cash. You can make some money by shorting the stocks but I am no expert in that.

DT Candidates for knowledge purpose.
PLAA

EP Candidates
IVE
MRP
PTEC
VIY

Focus: PTEC

Episodic Pivots

All stocks which rally more than 100% have some episode at the start of each rally and also at the end of the rally. What we are looking for is to catch such stocks at the start of the rally. Episodic Pivots tries to scan for such stocks. Here is what is looks for

1. Stock which is up by more than 8% today on very high volume say 3 million.
2. These stocks should not be down by more than 25% in last 3 months.
3. Volume up by 300% over average volume.
4. Once you have the list, look for a positive news for the stocks in above universe.

Whether the news in step 4 will cause the stock to rally, this judgement comes with experience. A good practise would be look at the stocks that have rally between 200% to 400% to see what caused the move.

I will be posting the EP candidate list along with Double Trouble in daily market update.

Market Update - 05th Feb 2008

Market is back in red. I am on sidelines since December. I am using this time to learn another principle of stock picking. It is called Episodic Pivots. I will write about that in my next post.

Double Trouble candidates for today

GME.L - Penny stock, not a huge volume. Ignore.
MAMA.L - same as above
PLAA.L - Minning stock, probably up as Platinum prices are going up. Good volume. Keep an eye. Might be a good buy on weekness.

Market Update - 04 Feb

Market has been rallying for last few days but the ratio's are still cautious. There are new stocks breaking out. From old leaders, miners are still doing pretty well.

DT Candidate
GNG.L - This stock has been on decline recently. I will wait for few days to see if the rally continues. However as there is not much financial data, this might be a risky bet.